The demolition derby that now defines the Democratic presidential primary race looks headed for another smashup tonight when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama meet for a debate in delegate-rich Pennsylvania, site of the nation's next big primary on Tuesday.
With the Democratic presidential hopefuls locked in open warfare as the last primaries wind down and the battle for delegates heats up, the questions now are: How much intra-party bashing will voters tolerate, and how much will the Republicans benefit?
Although past one-on-one debates between the New York and Illinois senators have been virtual lovefests, the terrain is different this time because Clinton is running out of room. Many political observers believe she must put the pedal down hard tonight if she hopes to convince all-important superdelegates that she alone has the muscle to take the Democratic fight on to the general election.
"It has been an enjoyable primary season," laughed Sacramento-based GOP strategist Rob Stutzman on Tuesday on the recent developments that have had Obama and Clinton pouring on the vitriol in the last week. Between the brouhaha over the "bitter" comments from Obama in San Francisco and the beer-and-gun-loving displays by Clinton as they have courted Pennsylvania voters, Stutzman notes, the Democratic presidential contest is "becoming the political equivalent of Vietnam. At some point, one of them catches a helicopter off the roof, but it's not clear who it will be - and how it will happen."
With just six days until voters go to the polls in Pennsylvania, Stutzman's obvious delight in tonight's debate (starting at 5 p.m. PDT on ABC) is a measure of just how much the presidential race has shifted - and just how impossibly tangled it looks for the Democrats right now. Just weeks ago, the veteran Sacramento GOP consultant was a senior adviser to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and was engaged in a bitter battle with the team of Arizona Sen. John McCain for Republican hearts and minds.
Republican cease-fire
But with McCain now the presumptive GOP nominee, all the rancor among candidates in that race - remember all the talk about who was the real conservative? - has evaporated.
A new Quinnipiac University Poll released Monday shows that Clinton leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent in crucial Pennsylvania - a lead that has held steady for the New York senator in the Keystone State, where 188 delegates - 158 of them pledged - are up for grabs.
But the major controversy this week over Obama's comment suggesting small-town Americans are "bitter" over the economic crisis and "cling" to church, guns and anti-trade sentiments might have had some effects: The survey of more than 2,000 likely Democratic primary voters showed that more than a quarter of Clinton voters say they will vote for McCain come fall if Obama is the party's nominee, while just 1 in 5 Obama voters say they will switch to McCain if Clinton is chosen.
Danger zone for DemocratsBarbara O'Connor, professor of political communication at California State University Sacramento, said the danger in the increasingly sharp tone of the Democratic race is growing for both Obama and Clinton as they vie for the final delegates in what has been a nearly two-year contest.
"Despite the leadership's rhetoric that this is really heathy for the party, people are getting annoyed," she said. "It's been going on for so long, and any time you bring in personal acrimony, it makes people uncomfortable.
"And when it deals with core values, it makes them more uncomfortable," she said. "It's the duration and the intensity ... and the party will have to overcome the weariness" or face turning off the armies of energized new voters who have turned out so far.
For Clinton, the goal of tonight's meeting - coming after a week in which she has attacked Obama as an "elitist" - should be "to have a positive message about what she'll do. This sniping ... doesn't win people to her side," O'Connor said. "She has to go back on message."
Obama, who needled Clinton as an Annie Oakley wannabe this week on the issue of guns, also needs to put last week's difficulties behind him and stay positive, O'Connor said.
"The more he looks like the 'same old, same old,' the more (voters) say this is the same as any other election, why am I engaged?" she said. "Meanwhile, McCain is happily moving along and reaching his base."
Michael Semler, professor of political science at Sacramento State, said that the goal for both candidates in the debate should be "to recognize that they have a common enemy" and that "the animosity has to be tempered in some form."
"Who it really hurts is Obama ... and it does hurt him enormously," he said. That's because Clinton, with her delegate count lagging and the chances of making up the difference an almost impossible hurdle, has resorted to increasingly sharp attacks that have made her "damaged goods at this point; she's no longer perceived as bringing a different tone to Washington or a different attitude."
"The irony is that the first serious woman running for president is the establishment candidate ... literally part of the old boys network," he said. Should Obama participate in the slugfest, "he loses stature and he's no longer above the fray."
Long-range impact
But Semler says another bloody debate could have other more long-ranging implications than just who comes out ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination.
"It hurts the Democrats' chances to control Congress," Semler said. "Republicans are deciding not to run for re-election in record numbers; they're having problems raising money and having a difficult time to find candidates and raise money."
But the longer Clinton and Obama slug it out, Semler said, it's "here come the Democrats, wounding themselves and giving the GOP an opportunity to say, 'well, maybe we're not so bad off.' "
Remaining Dem races
(Number of pledged delegates at stake are in parentheses.)
Tuesday Pennsylvania primary (158)
May 3 Guam caucus (4)
May 6
Indiana primary (72)
North Carolina primary (115)
May 13
West Virginia primary (28)
May 20
Kentucky primary (51)
Oregon primary (52)
June 1
Puerto Rico primary (55)
June 3
Montana primary (16)
South Dakota primary (15)
Delegate tally
Hillary Clinton: 1,250
Barack Obama: 1,414
(Numbers include unpledged delegates who say they will vote for Clinton or Obama. Delegates needed to win Democratic nomination: 2,025)
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Clintons Last Big Opening
Barack Obama's elitist remarks about God, guns, and bigotry represent Hillary Clinton's last chance to alter the dynamics of the campaign - especially with superdelegates - and show Democrats that nominating Barack Obama would be a disaster:
Yesterday, Clinton hit Obama for calling Pennsylvanians "bitter," ground on which he fairly ably engaged. Today, she's onto the other half of his San Francisco remarks, in which he linked economic frustration to clinging to religion and guns (the part he sought to walk back this morning in Muncie, Ind.). "Sen. Obama's remarks are elitist, and they are out of touch," Clinton said. "The people of faith I know don't 'cling to' religion because they're bitter. ... I also disagree with Sen. Obama's assertion that people in this country 'cling to guns' and have certain attitudes about immigration or trade simply out of frustration. People of all walks of life hunt — and they enjoy doing so because it's an important part of their life, not because they are bitter." Now, this is more a general election wedge than a Democratic primary one, and Hillary Clinton may not be the world's best messenger on the Second Amendment. But it's a preview of things to come. Clinton may or may not be able to turn her fortunes around by exploiting Obama's tone deafness. But at the very least she has caused the march of superdelegates to Obama's side to halt and sniff the air. She still doesn't have the line of attack quite right - Obama's belief in a white middle class "false consciousness" that prevents them for voting for liberals because they "cling" to values issues like religion - the "opiate of the masses" Obama is hinting. It is the breathtaking arrogance of Obama to ascribe stupidity and fear to the voter as an explanation as to why they keep voting for Republicans that should be the major attack points for McCain during the fall.As for Hillary, forget the polls in Pennsylvania for any clue about how deep this incident will cut. Look at North Carolina and Indiana polls and, if it is released, the middle class (less than $50,000 a year) white male vote. If Obama's support wanes with that group, he may very well be in trouble.This story could be a 24 hour phenomenon - at least for now. I would fully expect the GOP to make considerable hay with Obama's remarks first at the convention and then during the general election.
Yesterday, Clinton hit Obama for calling Pennsylvanians "bitter," ground on which he fairly ably engaged. Today, she's onto the other half of his San Francisco remarks, in which he linked economic frustration to clinging to religion and guns (the part he sought to walk back this morning in Muncie, Ind.). "Sen. Obama's remarks are elitist, and they are out of touch," Clinton said. "The people of faith I know don't 'cling to' religion because they're bitter. ... I also disagree with Sen. Obama's assertion that people in this country 'cling to guns' and have certain attitudes about immigration or trade simply out of frustration. People of all walks of life hunt — and they enjoy doing so because it's an important part of their life, not because they are bitter." Now, this is more a general election wedge than a Democratic primary one, and Hillary Clinton may not be the world's best messenger on the Second Amendment. But it's a preview of things to come. Clinton may or may not be able to turn her fortunes around by exploiting Obama's tone deafness. But at the very least she has caused the march of superdelegates to Obama's side to halt and sniff the air. She still doesn't have the line of attack quite right - Obama's belief in a white middle class "false consciousness" that prevents them for voting for liberals because they "cling" to values issues like religion - the "opiate of the masses" Obama is hinting. It is the breathtaking arrogance of Obama to ascribe stupidity and fear to the voter as an explanation as to why they keep voting for Republicans that should be the major attack points for McCain during the fall.As for Hillary, forget the polls in Pennsylvania for any clue about how deep this incident will cut. Look at North Carolina and Indiana polls and, if it is released, the middle class (less than $50,000 a year) white male vote. If Obama's support wanes with that group, he may very well be in trouble.This story could be a 24 hour phenomenon - at least for now. I would fully expect the GOP to make considerable hay with Obama's remarks first at the convention and then during the general election.
"Clinton lead Narrowing"
Clinton is still ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania, but her lead is shrinking, and Obama's efforts to reach out to voters in working-class suburbs like Levittown may help him narrow the gap.
If Obama ends up winning the nomination, he may need these core Democratic voters in November much more than he needs them on April 22. Clinton has said Obama will be a weak nominee because he cannot connect with white working-class voters, and Democrats need to carry those voters in order to win big swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
If Obama wins or comes very close in Pennsylvania, he could prove her wrong. After Pennsylvania, he will not have many other chances.
If Obama ends up winning the nomination, he may need these core Democratic voters in November much more than he needs them on April 22. Clinton has said Obama will be a weak nominee because he cannot connect with white working-class voters, and Democrats need to carry those voters in order to win big swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
If Obama wins or comes very close in Pennsylvania, he could prove her wrong. After Pennsylvania, he will not have many other chances.
Obama Campaign Taking Shots:Will it hurt his chances?
MUNCIE, Ind. — Senator Barack Obama on Saturday rebutted criticism that has enveloped his campaign over a comment he made last Sunday that many working-class voters are angry and bitter over economic conditions in America, and he told an audience here that his words were not meant to be insulting.Many dispirited voters believe politicians will not solve their problems, Mr. Obama argued, so they base their votes on issues like religion, gun rights or same-sex marriage rather than voting for their economic interests. Democratic and Republican critics alike accused Mr. Obama, of Illinois, of being elitist and demeaning to working-class Americans.
“Now, I didn’t say it as well as I should have,” Mr. Obama said, speaking to hundreds of Indiana voters at a rally on Saturday. “Because the truth is that these traditions that are passed on from generation to generation, those are important, that’s what sustains us. But what is absolutely true is that people don’t feel like they are being listened to.”As Mr. Obama concluded a three-day tour of Indiana, where the May 6 primary has emerged as a crucial stop in the Democratic presidential nominating fight, his remarks last week at a California fund-raiser threatened to complicate his efforts to broaden his appeal to working-class voters here and in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22.
Asked at that fund-raiser why his candidacy was struggling in Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama responded that many voters were “bitter” about their economic inequalities.
“So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or antitrade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,” Mr. Obama said, according to a transcript on the Huffington Post Web site, which first published the remarks on Friday.
For a second straight day, Mr. Obama sought to contain the political fallout surrounding the remark. At a rally Friday evening in Terre Haute, he angrily rebuked Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and John McCain of Arizona for what he said was an attempt to use social and cultural issues to distract voters from other concerns, but at his appearance here Saturday he softened his tone and conceded his remarks had not been artfully phrased.
“Lately, there’s been a little typical sort of political flare-up because I said something that everybody knows is true, which is that there are a whole bunch of folks in small towns in Pennsylvania, in towns right here in Indiana, in my hometown in Illinois, who are bitter,” Mr. Obama said Saturday. “They are angry, they feel like they’ve been left behind. They feel like nobody’s paying attention to what they’re going through.”
As the audience listened nearly in silence, he added: “So I said, well you know, when you’re bitter, you turn to what you can count on. So people vote, they vote about guns or they take comfort from their faith and their family and their community and they get mad about illegal immigrants who are coming over to this country or they get frustrated about how things are changing. That’s a natural response.”
Mr. Obama urged voters to “get past the distractions of our politics” and vote their economic interests.
With the Pennsylvania primary only 10 days away, the comments touched off a fresh surge of criticism about Mr. Obama’s ability to win over working-class voters. It was a demographic that his campaign has aggressively courted since losing the Ohio primary to Mrs. Clinton last month.
In Indianapolis on Saturday, Mrs. Clinton told voters she was “taken aback by the demeaning remarks Senator Obama made about people in small-town America.”
“Senator Obama’s remarks are elitist and they are out of touch,” Mrs. Clinton told an audience. “They are not reflective of the values and beliefs of Americans. Certainly not the Americans that I know.”
The McCain campaign late Friday evening criticized Mr. Obama for failing to express regret for his remark.
Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for Mr. McCain, said, “Instead of apologizing to small-town Americans for dismissing their values, Barack Obama arrogantly tried to spin his way out of his outrageous San Francisco remarks.”
“You can’t be more out of touch than that,” he added.
“Now, I didn’t say it as well as I should have,” Mr. Obama said, speaking to hundreds of Indiana voters at a rally on Saturday. “Because the truth is that these traditions that are passed on from generation to generation, those are important, that’s what sustains us. But what is absolutely true is that people don’t feel like they are being listened to.”As Mr. Obama concluded a three-day tour of Indiana, where the May 6 primary has emerged as a crucial stop in the Democratic presidential nominating fight, his remarks last week at a California fund-raiser threatened to complicate his efforts to broaden his appeal to working-class voters here and in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22.
Asked at that fund-raiser why his candidacy was struggling in Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama responded that many voters were “bitter” about their economic inequalities.
“So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or antitrade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,” Mr. Obama said, according to a transcript on the Huffington Post Web site, which first published the remarks on Friday.
For a second straight day, Mr. Obama sought to contain the political fallout surrounding the remark. At a rally Friday evening in Terre Haute, he angrily rebuked Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and John McCain of Arizona for what he said was an attempt to use social and cultural issues to distract voters from other concerns, but at his appearance here Saturday he softened his tone and conceded his remarks had not been artfully phrased.
“Lately, there’s been a little typical sort of political flare-up because I said something that everybody knows is true, which is that there are a whole bunch of folks in small towns in Pennsylvania, in towns right here in Indiana, in my hometown in Illinois, who are bitter,” Mr. Obama said Saturday. “They are angry, they feel like they’ve been left behind. They feel like nobody’s paying attention to what they’re going through.”
As the audience listened nearly in silence, he added: “So I said, well you know, when you’re bitter, you turn to what you can count on. So people vote, they vote about guns or they take comfort from their faith and their family and their community and they get mad about illegal immigrants who are coming over to this country or they get frustrated about how things are changing. That’s a natural response.”
Mr. Obama urged voters to “get past the distractions of our politics” and vote their economic interests.
With the Pennsylvania primary only 10 days away, the comments touched off a fresh surge of criticism about Mr. Obama’s ability to win over working-class voters. It was a demographic that his campaign has aggressively courted since losing the Ohio primary to Mrs. Clinton last month.
In Indianapolis on Saturday, Mrs. Clinton told voters she was “taken aback by the demeaning remarks Senator Obama made about people in small-town America.”
“Senator Obama’s remarks are elitist and they are out of touch,” Mrs. Clinton told an audience. “They are not reflective of the values and beliefs of Americans. Certainly not the Americans that I know.”
The McCain campaign late Friday evening criticized Mr. Obama for failing to express regret for his remark.
Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for Mr. McCain, said, “Instead of apologizing to small-town Americans for dismissing their values, Barack Obama arrogantly tried to spin his way out of his outrageous San Francisco remarks.”
“You can’t be more out of touch than that,” he added.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Obama gaining on Clinton in Pennsylvania: poll
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 6 points among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters but he is chipping away at her lead, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday.
With two weeks to go until the state's April 22 primary, Clinton has a 50 percent to 44 percent lead, the poll found.
In the last poll on April 2, Clinton had a 9-point lead over the Illinois senator, 50 percent to 41 percent.
Obama and Clinton, a New York senator, are fighting to be their party's nominee in the November presidential election against Republican Sen. John McCain.
Among Pennsylvania women, support for Clinton remained steady at 54 percent, but Obama gained ground in the new poll with 41 percent. In the earlier survey, 37 percent of women favored Obama.
The poll found that among white voters, Obama gained 4 points to 38 percent support, while Clinton slipped 3 points to 56 percent.
Among voters under age 44, support for Obama was up 4 percentage points to 55 percent. Clinton dropped 2 points to 40 percent support in that age group, the poll found.
Fifty-two percent of Pennsylvania Democrats said the economy was the single most important issue in deciding their primary vote, followed by 22 percent who said the war in Iraq and 15 percent who cited health care.
Voters who list the economy as the top issue gave Clinton a small 49 percent to 45 percent margin over Obama, down from 53 percent to 39 percent. Voters who say the war is the preeminent issue back Obama 51 percent to 44 percent for Clinton.
Monday, April 7, 2008
In Superdelegate Count, Tough Math for Clinton
The hill that Hillary Rodham Clinton must climb to beat Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination will grow a little steeper on Monday, as it has most days lately.
Margarett Campbell, a Montana state legislator, plans to declare her support for Senator Obama, of Illinois. She becomes the 69th superdelegate he has picked up since the Feb. 5 coast-to-coast string of primary elections and caucus votes. (Note: After this column was published, Ms. Campbell said she would be remaining neutral, citing state party rules that prevent its members from endorsing a candidate during a contested primary.)
In the same period, Senator Clinton, of New York, has seen a net loss of two superdelegates, according to figures from the Obama campaign that Clinton aides do not dispute. That erosion may dim Mrs. Clinton’s remaining hopes even more than internal campaign turmoil, which led to the ouster on Sunday of the campaign’s chief strategist, Mark Penn.
Trailing by more than 160 pledged delegates — those chosen in state primaries or caucuses — Mrs. Clinton has counted on superdelegates to help her overtake Mr. Obama with a late surge before the party’s convention in August. The party’s rules for proportional allocation make it highly difficult for her to erase Mr. Obama’s pledged delegate lead, even if she sweeps the final 10 contests.
So her aides have lobbied to persuade those still uncommitted superdelegates to back her — or to continue holding out so her campaign has the chance to demonstrate momentum and superior electability in primaries from Pennsylvania’s on April 22 through Montana’s on June 3.
Yet Mrs. Clinton’s once formidable lead among superdelegates who have announced preferences has shrunk to 34 by the Obama campaign count. The pool of remaining uncommitted superdelegates for her to draw from has dwindled to around 330, fewer than half the overall total of 795 superdelegates.
Mrs. Clinton tried again this weekend to stem the erosion, speaking to Ms. Campbell on a campaign swing through Montana. But Ms. Campbell declined to hold out any longer, saying, “Senator Obama reminds me of why I’m a Democrat.”
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Does Sen. McCain Stand a chance?
McCAIN'S CHANCES....As Josh Marshall points out, John McCain got stomped in Michigan among self-described Republicans. He also got stomped among Republicans in Iowa, and even lost (though closely) among Republicans in New Hampshire. Independents might like him, but basically, John McCain just isn't doing well among Republicans in the Republican primary.
Elsewhere, Ezra Klein highlights Rush Limbaugh's spittle-flecked hatred of both McCain and Mike Huckabee: "I'm here to tell you, if either of these two guys get the nomination, it's going to destroy the Republican Party." Ouch.
Put those things together with the fact that future primaries are mostly closed, which means that only Republicans will be voting in the Republican contests, and McCain's chances suddenly don't look so good. Ditto for Huckabee, who's shown very little ability to appeal much beyond his evangelical base. And ditto for Rudy Giuliani, who might very well be dead before Super Tuesday even rolls around.
Somehow, every time I go through this exercise, the only possible winner seems like Mitt Romney, even though his national support levels don't look so hot. On the other hand, Romney not only won Michigan last night, but he beat everyone else, including Huckabee, among evangelicals. That seems promising for the Romney cause.
But I'm still rooting for a brokered convention. Hooray for smoke-filled GOP rooms!
—Kevin Drum 12:50 PM Permalink
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